赣州近30年气候变化对双季早稻产量的影响

以赣州市1980-2009年逐日气温、降水量和日照时数等资料为基础,对赣州双季早稻生长期的气候变化特征进行分析,并对早稻气象产量与其生长期气象因子间进行了相关分析。结果表明：（1）近30a早稻的单产随时间呈增加趋势,20世纪90年代以前基本呈线性增长,90年代后期开始增长速度明显放缓;（2）近30a早稻生长期的气温总体呈增加趋势,升温速率为0.35℃/10a,90年代末以前增温不明显,但随后气温跳跃上升,其中2000-2009年的平均气温比90年代上升了0.7℃,气温与早稻产量存在极显著的负相关,气候变暖对早稻增产起抑制作用;（3）近30a早稻生长期的降水量呈减少态势,其递减速率为157.6mm/10a,降水量与早稻产量存在明显的正相关,早稻生长期间降水量由多变少,并有逐年减少趋势,降水不足将是影响未来早稻高产的主要因子之一;（4）近30a早稻生长期的日照时数没有明显的变化趋势,但年际间和年代际间的变幅都较大,日照时数与早稻产量呈明显的负相关,表明日照太强对早稻生产有不利影响;（5）近30a早稻灌浆乳熟期的气温呈明显增加趋势,特别是从90年代后期开始＂高温逼熟＂天气明显增多,且灌浆乳熟期气温与早稻产量存在明显的负相关,灌浆乳熟期的高温热害也是影响赣州早稻优质高产的关键因子之一。

Effect of Climate Change on Early Rice Yield in Last 30 Years in Ganzhou

The characteristics of climate change during early rice growth period was analyzed,and correlation analysis between meteorological yield and meteorological factors during early rice growth period was conducted,based on daily temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours data from 1980 to 2009 in Ganzhou.The results showed that there was an increasing trend of early rice yield during last 30 years with linear increase before 1990,but yield growth rate slowed down obviously after late 1990s.Temperature increased at the rate of 0.35℃/10y during last 30 years.Temperature was significantly negatively relationship with rice yield,and climate warming restrained early rice yield increasing.Precipitation decreased at the rate of 157.6mm/10y during last 30 years.Precipitation was obviously positive correlation with rice yield,and precipitation decreasing could be affected early rice yield in future.The sunshine hours change not obviously during last 30 years,but the inter-annual and inter-decadal change a lot.A sunshine hour was a negative correlation with early rice yield,and over-sunshine was not benefit to rice yield.Temperature increased obviously during early rice grouting milky stage,the meteorology of high temperature urging maturity was significantly increasing since the late 1990s in particular.Temperature was negatively relationship with early rice yield,and heat damage could be affected yield and quality of early rice.