| 基于优化灰色模型的江苏农村社会总产值预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 门可佩,张娜.基于优化灰色模型的江苏农村社会总产值预测[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(10):4353-4354. |
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| 作者姓名： | 门可佩 张娜 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学数理学院,江苏南京,210044;南京信息工程大学数理学院,江苏南京,210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家统计局全国统计科研计划重点项目(2008LZ022) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据江苏省2007年的最新统计资料,通过筛选建立了对数新发展系数优化灰色模型,对2008-2012年江苏省农村社会总产值进行了实证分析和预测研究。结果表明：2008年,江苏农村社会总产值将达到61696.97亿元,到2010年末将达95110.17亿元,约为2000年的6.69倍,“十一五”规划的预期目标可望顺利实现。
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| 关 键 词： | 江苏农村社会总产值 灰色建模 对数新发展系数优化灰色模型 预测 |
Forecast of Rural Gross Social Output Value in Jiangsu Province Based on Optimal Grey Model |
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| MEN Ke-pei et al.Forecast of Rural Gross Social Output Value in Jiangsu Province Based on Optimal Grey Model[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2009,37(10):4353-4354. |
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| Authors: | MEN Ke-pei |
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| Institution: | MEN Ke-pei et al(College of Mathematics & Physics,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210044) |
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| Abstract: | The optimal grey model with logarithm new development coefficient is established by filtrating according to the latest statistical data in 2007 in Jiangsu Province.The rural gross social output value during 2008-2012 in Jiangsu Province was analyzed by empirical study and forecasted.The results showed that Jiangsu′s rural gross social output value in 2008 would reach 6 169.697 billion yuan,it would reach 9 511.017 billion yuan at the end of 2010,which was about 6.69 times that of 2000.The expected goals planned by 11th five-year program should achieved successfully. |
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| Keywords: | Rural gross social output value in Jiangsu Province Grey modeling Optimal grey model with logarithm new development coefficient Forecast |
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