基于中国农业CGE模型的耕地政策对粮食安全影响研究

通过构建农业一般均衡模型（CGE），本研究分析了耕地面积减少条件下的粮食安全问题。模拟结果显示，粮食耕地面积减少将导致土地租金、物价指数、GDP价格指数、投资价格指数、出口价格指数增长，导致投资、资本和实质GDP减少，直接影响就业、实际工资、名义工资、家庭可支配收入，家庭消费和政府消费缩减。人民币升值影响出口、关税收入减少，净出口对GDP贡献减少，国家宏观经济形势变坏。因此，在保障粮食安全政策中，必须坚决维护1.2亿hm2耕地红线不动摇，确保国家粮食安全。

Impact of Cultivated Land on Chinese Food Security Based on China Agricultural CGE Model

This paper analyzed the food security issue under the assumption of reduction of cultivated land based on China agricultural general equilibrium model （CGE）.The results show that reduction of cultivated grain land could result in the fluctuation of price index of CPI,price index of GDP,price index of investment and price index of export,bring the result of investment,capital and real GDP reduction,directly effect employment,real wages,nominal wages,household disposable income,make household consumption and government consumption reduction.RMB appreciation,tariff revenue reduction,net exports contribution to GDP decreased,national macroeconomic situation deteriorated.Therefore,the red line of 1.2 billion hm 2 of cultivated land must be kept to ensure national food security.