初始禀赋差异、农业补贴与农地流转选择——全国8省30村的微观实证分析

【目的】研究农户家庭土地禀赋、人力资源禀赋、财产禀赋的差异和国家农业补贴政策对农地流转选择的影响，从而分析农地流转的根本动因。【方法】基于2010年全国8省、1 585个农户的微观入户调查数据，采用二元分位数选择模型和贝叶斯估计方法，测算不同初始禀赋和国家农业补贴政策对农户转出和转入农地的选择影响。【结果】各种资源禀赋和政策变量对农户农地流转的选择并不具有稳定的单调关系，而是呈现明显的分位数效应。【结论】农地的社会保障功能与农地流转的增收效应存在替代关系，对于初始禀赋处于劣势的农户，农地的社会保障功能更加显著；种粮补贴、良种补贴、农资补贴对农户转入农地的激励作用有限；农业补贴政策应与农村劳动力的职业技能培训相结合；小额信贷对农地流转具有明显作用。

Differences in Endowments of Peasant Household, Agricultural Subsidies, and Peasants’ Willingness to Transfer Farmlands —A Micro-Empirical Analysis from a Survey on Peasant Household of 30 Villages in 8 Provinces

【Objective】The impacts of endowment differences in farmlands, human resources and property among peasant household and the state’s agricultural subsidy policies on peasants’ willingness to transfer farmlands were studied, and the fundamental factors of the farmlands transfer were analyzed.【Method】On the basis of survey data from 1 585 peasant households of 8 provinces in 2010, this article used Binary quantile regression and bayesian estimation techniques to measure the effect.【Result】 It was found that all kinds of endowment differences and policy variables have an obvious quantile effect on peasant households’ willingness to transfer farmlands.【Conclusion】There is a substitute relationship between farmlands’ social security function and its income effect. It has a better social security function on those who are at disadvantage endowments. Subsidies for growing superior grain and subsidies for agricultural capital goods play a limited role in encouraging peasant household to acquire farmlands. The agricultural subsidy policies should be combined with the career training of rural labors. Small loans play an obvious role in farmlands transfer.