南丰柑桔物候与气象关系分析及物候期预测

利用南丰县气象局1981～2011年柑桔物候观测资料和气象资料进行统计分析,发现南丰县年平均气温随着全球气候变暖而升高。柑桔芽开放和开花均在逐年提早,柑桔芽开放年际差异最大,开花次之,可采成熟最小。立春至柑桔芽开放、柑桔芽开放至开花,其间隔天数均与≥0℃积温极显著正相关,与平均最高、最低气温极显著负相关。仅立春至柑桔芽开放间隔天数与降水量呈极显著正相关。柑桔开花至可采成熟间隔天数与≥0℃积温极显著正相关,与平均最高、最低气温、降水量、日照时数等均不相关或相关不显著。立春至柑桔可采成熟间隔天数与≥0℃积温、平均最高、最低气温、降水量、日照时数等均不相关。柑桔芽开放、开花分别与2月中、下旬和3月份平均气温、平均最高、最低气温极显著负相关。文章最后提出了积温推算和回归分析两种预测柑桔物候期的方法。

Analysis of Relationship between Phenology of Orange and Meteorological Condition in Nanfeng and Its Forecast

The observational data of orange phenology and meteorology in Nanfeng county from 1981 to 2011 were statistically analyzed.It was found that the annual average air temperature of Nanfeng increased with the global warming.The budding date and flowering date of orange became earlier year after year.Budding period of orange existed the greatest annual difference,followed by flowering period,and the annual difference in mature period was the smallest.Both the duration from spring begins to budding and the duration from budding to flowering were significantly positively correlated with ≥0 ℃ accumulative temperature,and they were significantly negatively correlated with the average maximum air temperature and average minimum air temperature.The duration from spring begins to budding had very significantly positive correlation with the precipitation.The duration from flowering to maturity was significantly positively correlated with ≥0 ℃ accumulative temperature,while it had no or un-significant correlation with the average maximum air temperature,average minimum air temperature,precipitation and sunlight duration.The duration from spring begins to maturity was not correlated with ≥0 ℃ accumulative temperature,average maximum air temperature,average minimum air temperature,precipitation and sunlight duration.The budding date and flowering date of orange were significantly negatively correlated with the average air temperature,average maximum air temperature and average minimum air temperature in middle and late February and March,respectively.This paper finally put forward 2 methods of forecasting the phenology of orange,namely calculating accumulative temperature and regression analysis.