柑橘黄龙病不同管理方式疫情演变规律及防控效果研究

为揭示柑橘黄龙病在不同管理方式下疫情运行轨迹，2002—2012年选取不同管理类型的柑橘生产区，以株发病率研究比较不同类型疫情流行规律和不同管理方式控制效果，将11年调查数据进行统计分析，建立数学模型，对疫情演变和控制效果进行量化测定分析。结果表明柑橘黄龙病年序疫情扩散流行总体呈线性上升态势，在不防控的失管橘园年均病株率11.11%，疫情扩散流行模型为y1=12.24x-1.3828(n=9，r=0.9769**)；在一般防控条件下橘园年均病株率4.69%，其疫情扩散模型为：y2=5.4498x–1.6035(n=11，r=0.9749**)，防控效果43.93%(22.93%~55.04%)；在综合防控条件下橘园年均病株率0.31%，其疫情扩散模型为y3=0.3663x-0.3422(n=11，r=0.9898**)，防控效果达96.15%(94.95%~97.40%)。因此，切实抓好综合防控工作，柑橘黄龙病是可防可控的。

Research on Epidemic Trajectory and Control Efficacy of Liberobacter asiaticum in Different Management Approaches

Abstract: In order to reveal the epidemic trajectory of liberobacter asiaticum in different management style, we established epidemic diffusion model of liberobacter asiaticum by the dynamic inspection of onset and dispersion in Huangyan District from 2002 to 2012, with the help of the diseased plants incidence data which processed by Excel 2003 and SPSS software. The results show that, The epidemic diffusion model of natural conditions without artificial control: y1=12.24x-1.3828(n=9,r=0.98**) , General Prevention and control: y 2= 5.4498x – 1.6035（n=11,r2=0.9505**）, The integrated control diffusion model: y3=0.379x-0.373(n=11,r2=0.982**). In natural conditions without artificial control, the annual average diseased-plant rate is11.11% and it takes 9 years from the onset to complete destruction . Under the conditions of general prevention and control methods, it needs 18 years, and the annual average diseased - plant rate of 4.69%, compared to the epidemic prevention and control of natural diffusion effect is good 57.79% .Basis of the integrated control diffusion model ,if the cumulative infection rate up to 10%,it at least go through 27 years, and the annual average diseased - plant rate of 0.31%, compared to the epidemic prevention and control of natural diffusion effect is good 97.21%.Whereby,do a good job of comprehensive prevention and control, the liberobacter asiaticum can prevention and control and the citrus industry will not disappear because of liberobacter asiaticum,so that all levels of government and the majority of growers have confidence in about the epidemic prevention and control.