基于CA-Markov模型的锡林河流域土地利用变化及预测分析

研究土地利用变化特征及预测未来土地利用变化的趋势，对经济平衡发展、提高生态环境质量、实现土地资源合理利用具有重要意义。以锡林河流域为研究区，对Landsat 2000、2005、2010年和2015年4期遥感数据进行目视解译，采用土地利用结构分析方法、重心迁移模型和CA-Markov模型，分析研究区16 a间土地利用演变特征，并对2030年土地利用情况进行预测。结果表明:1)2000-2015年，草地、林地和耕地呈波动变化，水域面积缓慢增加，建设用地不断扩张，未利用地面积在不断减少。建设用地、耕地和未利用地重心具有明显的方向性移动，耕地先向南后向北移动，建设用地主要向西北方向扩张，未利用土地重心持续向北移动。2)研究区综合土地利用动态度为5.70％，变化速率较快；锡林浩特市和各苏木土地利用变化速率差异较大，总体表现为中游＞下游＞上游；不同土地利用类型动态度为建设用地＞水域＞林地＞耕地＞未利用土地＞草地，即建设用地变化最快。3)研究区土地利用变化的主要方向为草地和未利用地的相互转换、耕地和草地的互相转换以及建设用地的不断扩张。4)2030年预测结果表明，耕地面积继续增加，速率有所下降，重心向西南方向移动；林地延续之前变化趋势，稳中有升；草地和未利用地面积继续减少，且未利用地重心持续向北移动；建设用地扩张明显，重心向锡林浩特市中心移动，速度减缓；水域有少量增加。CA-Markov模型与土地利用重心迁移模型相结合，实现了对未来耕地、建设用地和未利用土地的迁移方向的预测，可以为研究区提高草地退化防治效果、土地管理政策的制定和实施、城乡建设、土地利用规划等提供理论指导。

Land Use Change and Forecast Analysis in the Xilin River Basin Based on CA-Markov Model

Studying the characteristics of land use change and predicting the developmental trend of land use are of great significance to balance economic development,improve the quality of ecological environment and realize the rational utilization of land resources.Taking the Xilin River Basin as the research area,the four remote sensing data of Landsat 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 were visually interpreted.The land use structure analysis method,land use transfer model and CA-Markov model were used to analyze the land use evolution characteristics of the study area in 16 years,and the land use situation in 2030 was predicted.The results showed that:1)grassland occupied the dominant position in the study area from 2000 to 2015,and the area first increased and then decreased.The woodland overall showed an increasing trend.The cultivated land first decreased and then increased,and the water area showed an increasing trend.The construction land was expanding,while the unused land was decreasing.The construction land,cultivated land and unused land presented obvious directional movement.The cultivated land first moved to south and then northward.The construction land mainly expanded toward northwest,and the unused land continued to move northward.2)From 2000 to 2015,the dynamic degree of comprehensive land use in the whole basin was 5.70%,and the rate of change was faster;the rate of land use change in Xilinhot city varied greatly,showing as the middle reaches>the lower reaches>the upper reaches;the dynamic degree of different land use types in the whole basin was construction land>water area>forest land>cultivated land>unused land>grassland,that is,the change of construction land was the fastest.3)From 2000 to 2015,the main directions of land use change in the study area were the conversion of grassland and unused land,the conversion of cultivated land and grassland,and the continuous expansion of construction land.4)The forecast results in 2030 showed that the cultivated land area would continue to increase with decreasing speed,and it would move to the southwest;the change trend of the forest land would continue to increase as before;the area of grassland and unused land would continue to decrease,and the unused land would continue to move northward;the expansion of construction land was obvious,it would move to the center of Xilinhot city,and the speed would slow down;and the water area would increase slightly.