江西省油茶油酸含量气象评价模型研究

【目的】明确江西省油茶油酸含量的关键气象因子和关系模型，为江西省油茶品质气候评价及油茶品质气候区划等提供技术参考。【方法】利用6份油茶油酸含量检测数据（2018—2019年江西九江市柴桑区、丰城市和万安县油茶油酸含量检测数据）和同期气象数据（2018—2019年逐日平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、降水量、平均相对湿度和日照时数等），采用相关分析和线性回归方法，研究影响江西油茶油酸含量的关键气象因子，建立江西省油茶油酸含量气象评价模型，再利用10组油茶油酸含量检测数据（2018—2019年江西省10家油茶基地油茶油酸含量检测数据）和同期气象数据对评价模型进行检验。【结果】影响江西省油茶油酸含量的关键气象因子有10月下旬—11月下旬降水日数（X₂）、3月极端最高气温（X₆）、8月下旬—9月下旬气温日较差（X₉）和10月下旬—11月下旬日照时数（X₁₂），其中10月下旬—11月下旬降水日数对油茶油酸含量影响最大。研究建立的油酸含量（Y）气象评价模型为Y=0.1777X₂+0.1078X₆+0.2320X₉-0.0152X₁₂+75.5950，模型决定系数R2=0.9871。模型检验结果显示，油茶油酸含量评价值与实测值之差在±5%以内，模型对油酸含量等级的评价结果准确率为70%。【结论】依据关键气象因子建立的江西省油茶油酸含量气象评价模型准确率较高，能较好地反映气象条件对油茶油酸含量的影响程度，可应用于江西省油茶气候品质评价，同时可为油茶品质气候区划提供参考。

Meteorological evaluation model of oleic acid content in Camellia oleifera Abel. in Jiangxi

【Objective】In order to provide technical reference for climate evaluation of Camellia oleifera Abel. quality and climate zoning of C. oleifera quality in Jiangxi, the key meteorological factors and relationship model of oleic acid content of C. oleifera in Jiangxi were clarified.【Method】By using correlation analysis and linear regression, the key meteorological factors affecting the oleic acid content of C. oleifera in Jiangxi were studied by using 6 groups of the detection data of oleic acid content in C. oleifera(test data of oleic acid content of C. oleifera in Chaisang District, Fengcheng City and Wan'an County in Jiangxi from 2018 to 2019) and the meteorological data of the same period(daily average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, average relative humidity and sunshine hours from 2018 to 2019), and using 10 groups of C. oleifera oleic acid content detection data(detection data of oleic acid content of C. oleifera in 10 C. oleifera bases in Jiangxi) and meteorological data of the same period to test the evaluation model.【Result】The rainfall days from late October to late November(X₂), extreme maximum temperature in March(X₆), daily temperature range from late August to late September(X₉) and sunshine duration from late October to late November(X₁₂) were the key meteorological factors affecting oleic acid content of C. oleifera. The number of precipitation days from late October to late November had the greatest impact on the content of oleic acid in C. oleifera. The meteorological evaluation model of oleic acid content(Y) established was Y=0.1777 X₂+0.1078 X₆+0.2320 X₉-0.0152 X₁₂+75.5950. Determination coefficient of model R2=0.9871. The model test results showed that, the difference between the evaluated value of oleic acid content and the measured value was within ±5%. The accuracy of oleic acid content grade was 70%.【Conclusion】The established meteorological evaluation model of oleic acid content of C. oleifera based on key meteorological factors in Jiangxi has high accuracy, it can reflect the influence of meteorological conditions on oleic acid content of C. oleifera accurately, that can be applied to the evaluation service of C. oleifera climate quality in Jiangxi, and provide reference for the climatic division of C. oleifera quality.