冀南二代棉铃虫发生量的预测

根据永年县１９８０年～１９９３年棉铃虫田间调查资料，分析出越冬后活蛹量与二代棉铃虫卵量的相关关系，从而推导出以越冬后活蛹数预测二代棉铃虫卵发生量的回归方程，经显著性检验，估测相对误差在５％以下，比常规预测值，其准确度明显提高。并可提前二个多月及早报出，对棉花除虫工作有重要指导意义。

Genesis Forecasting of Second Generation of Bollworm in South Hebei

Based on field investigation data of bollworm in Hebei Yongnian from 1980 to 1993,the author analysed the correlation between the Living Pupals Survived from Winter and thenumber of ballworm eggs of second generation and the regression equation was derived forforecasting the capacity of second generation bollworm eggs using survival rate of pupals fromwinter. Using this equation; forecast can be made two months earlier than traditionalforecasting method, and the relative error of forecast is below 5% estimated throughsignificance test. It is of guiding importance in bollworm elimination.