基于时间序列MODIS NDVI的冬小麦产量预测方法

选择我国河北、河南、山东3省作为研究区,在250 m空间分辨率的冬小麦种植区和1 km的冬小麦像元纯度图的基础上,分析了2000—2009年MODIS NDVI抽穗期峰值与单产的时间序列变化关系。采用Becker-Reshef等提出的去噪声修正后的冬小麦抽穗期NDVI峰值与单产进行回归分析建立冬小麦产量预测模型,并分析冬小麦预测精度的影响因素。最后,利用2010年地级市尺度的统计单产对所建立的预测模型进行精度验证,模型的平均估产误差约为7.49%。结果表明,基于冬小麦抽穗期NDVI峰值的产量预测方法在中国冬小麦主产区具有一定的应用潜力。

Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting Based on Time Series of MODIS NDVI

The large regional-scale crop yield forecasting is of great significance to ensure national food security and agricultural sustainable development. To predict regional-scale winter wheat yield, the winter wheat forecasting method proposed by Becker-Reshef was implemented in major winter wheat planting areas in China. Firstly, the winter wheat planting areas were extracted through time series of MODIS NDVI with 250 m spatial resolution in Hebei, Henan and Shandong Provinces. Winter wheat adjusted NDVI peak at the heading stage was used to analyze the correlation with winter wheat yield on the purest wheat pixels from 2000 to 2010. Winter wheat yield prediction models were established through the regression statistical relationship between NDVI peak at heading stage and winter wheat yield at the prefecture-city unit from 2000 to 2009. The results showed that the dense wheat planted cities had good model accuracy. Finally, the accuracy of prediction models was evaluated by using the statistical winter wheat yield in 2010. The results showed that winter wheat yields could be forecasted two months in advance with average forecasting error of 7.49%, and the yield forecasting method using adjusted NDVI peak at heading stage had considerable potential applications at the prefecture-city scale in China. The study provides basis and a method for other crops yield forecasting in agricultural regions.