新疆生产建设兵团农牧业温室气体排放的脱钩与驱动效应分析

为系统性探究区域农牧业温室气体排放特征及驱动因素，以新疆生产建设兵团农牧业生产系统为研究对象，核算农牧业温室气体净排放量，采用Tapio脱钩分析法评估温室气体净排放量与产值、产量的关联程度，运用LMDI分解法解析温室气体净排放量的驱动因素。结果表明:1)2011—2020年新疆生产建设兵团农业和畜牧业温室气体净排放量均呈现“增长—平稳波动”趋势，至2020年农业和畜牧业温室气体净排放量分别为1.02×10¹⁰ kg和1.34×10⁹ kg(以CO₂计)。2)农牧业温室气体净排放量与产值处于脱钩状态，而与产量逐渐脱钩。3)生产机械化水平、水利现代化水平对农业温室气体净排放量的效应值为-14.87×10⁶、58.25×10⁸ hm²，分别起抑制作用和促进作用。畜禽良种化水平对畜牧业温室气体净排放量的效应值为-4.55×10⁶，起抑制作用；生产机械化水平对畜牧业温室气体净排放量从促进作用转向抑制作用。本研究成果可为新疆生产建设兵团农牧业绿色低碳发展提供参考资料。

Decoupling and driving effects analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps

This study aimed to systematically explore the characteristics, correlations, and driving factors of the greenhouse gas emissions from regional agricultural and animal husbandry. The agriculture and animal husbandry production system in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps was chosen as the research object. The net GHG emissions of agriculture and animal husbandry were calculated according to IPCC technical guidelines. The decoupling status between net GHG emissions and output value, output was evaluated by using the Tapio decoupling model. The driving effects of production mechanization, water conservancy modernization and breed improvement were analyzed by using the LMDI decomposition method. The results showed that: 1)From 2011 to 2020, the net GHG emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry displayed a growth-stable fluctuation trend. The net GHG emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry in 2020 were 1. 02×10¹⁰ kg and 1. 34×10⁹ kg(in terms of carbon dioxide), respectively. 2)The correlation between net GHG emissions and output value was mainly in weak decoupling and strong decoupling status. The net GHG emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry were gradually decoupled with the output. 3)From 2011 to 2020, The driving effect values of production mechanization level and water conservancy modernization level were -14. 87×10⁶ and 58. 25×10⁸ hm². It meant that water conservancy modernization level played a role in promoting the net GHG emissions from agriculture, while water conservancy played a restraining role. The driving effect values of breed improvement level were -4. 55×10⁶, which were inhibitory effects on the net GHG emissions from animal husbandry. Therefore, it was necessary to apply organic and inorganic fertilizers scientifically to save energy and reduce consumption in farmland irrigation, promote the high-quality development of animal husbandry mechanization, and optimize the supply of forage. This study provided reference materials for green and low-carbon development in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps.