安全屏障对储油罐区池火灾多米诺效应概率的影响

随着石油储库朝大型化、集约化方向发展,罐区工艺与设备日趋繁杂,一旦发生火灾事故,极易引发多米诺效应,导致灾难性后果.为了降低石油储库事故对周边人员、环境等造成的影响,基于主动、被动、应急与响应措施3种安全屏障的性能,采用事件树与贝叶斯网络方法针对不同安全屏障建模,进而对事故多米诺效应概率进行定量评估.结果表明:多层安全...

Influence of safety barriers on probability of domino effect triggerred by pool fire in tank farm

With the enlargement and intensification of oil storages, the technologies and equipment used in the tank farm are quite complicated. Hence, once any fire accident occurs, the domino effect may be triggered with catastrophic consequences.In order to reduce the impact of oil storage accidents on the surrounding personnel and environment, the model of safety barrier was established with the event tree and Bayesian network method by considering the performance of three types of safety barrier, including the active, passive, emergency and response measures, and the probability of the domino effect was evaluated quantitatively. The results show that: the multi-layer safety barriers can reduce the probability of domino effect by 3 to 7 orders of magnitude and the probability of the multi-level domino effect to a greater extent. Besides, the passive protection barrier is the most effective, followed by the emergency and response measures, and the active barrier is the least effective. Generally, the research results can provide some guidance for reducing the damage and impact of regional accidents in the areas where multiple devices are concentrated.