近20年和田绿洲水资源变化及其驱动力分析

以和田绿洲20年遥感影像图、多年的野外实地调查资料和统计资料,分析了和田绿洲近20年以来水资源时空变化及其驱动力因子。应用RS/GIS进行空间分析,通过主成分分析、多元回归分析,最终定性的确定影响和田绿洲水资源变化的主要因素。遥感解释结果表明:在近20年过程中水资源各类型有明显的变化,其中湖泊和人工水库的变化最明显,水资源总体上表现减少的变化趋势,减少总水域面积为4317.313hm2。主成分析结果表明,人为社会因素、自然气候因素等两大类因索是影响和田绿洲水资源变化的两个主成分。主成分结果进一步表明对整个和田河净流量的时空变化而言,人为社会因素对水资源产生负作用,而自然气候因素呈现短期的积极作用。其主要原因:第一,和田绿洲是个典型的干旱地区,生态环境极为脆弱、水资源欠缺,人类盲目的生产活动更加剧了和田河净流量的大幅度减少;第二,和田河是冰川融水与降水混合补给的河流,冰川积雪融水是和田河径流重要补给来源,在气候变暖情况下,气温升高导致径流增加,但冰川积雪资源处于相对枯竭状况,河川径流量仅会呈现短时间增加,因此说气候变暖起着短期的积极作用。

The water resources change and its driving force analysis in Hotan Oasis during the past 20years

Based on collected data such as 20 years of remote sensing images,many years of field survey data and statistical data of the Hotan Oasis,we analyzed the over all tendencies,spatial distribution and driving factors of Hotan oasis water resources in the recent 20 years.Through Appling RS/GIS spatial analysis,principal component analyses,multiple regression analysis,qualitative ascertain the main factors which affects the Hotan oasis water resources changes were obtained.Remote sensing interpretation results show that in the past 20 years,various types of water resources significantly changed,among them,changes in lakes and artificial reservoirs were the most obvious,but overall showed decreasing trends.Total water resource areas reduce were 4317.313 hectares.Principal component analysis showed that human and social factors,natural climatic factors were the primary factors influencing Hotan oasis water resources change.The main composition results provided further evidence,consideration of the Hotan oasis temporal and spatial variations of water resources,that human and social factors had negative effects on water resources changing,while the natural climatic factors produced positive affect.The main causes were that the Hotan Oasis is a typical arid area,ecological environment is extremely fragile,water resources are deficient,under the human irregular activity,Hotan oasis water resource shortages will become more serious;Secondly,The Hotan River is the main water resource in Hotan Oasis,which forms by glacier melt water and precipitation.On the background of global change,Hotan Oasis precipitation increase gradually,which plays a positive role for the water resource.