利用高空风预测小麦条锈病研究初报

小麦条锈病是一种可通过高空气流传播的病害，给小麦的生产造成了巨大损失。笔者选择甘肃平凉、陕西汉中、河南郑州三地，根据小麦条锈病病情数据、地面温度、湿度、降水量及等压面300hPa、400hPa、500hPa、700hPa、850hPa高空风量数据，利用主成分分析和判别分析方法，分析三地间小麦条锈病发生流行的相关性，探讨了高空风量数据在小麦条锈病的发生程度预测中的作用。结果表明三地间小麦条锈病的发生流行具有较高的相关性，可利用高空风量数据预测三地间小麦条锈病长距离传播，准确率较高，其中500hPa等压面的风量值在预测中的准确率最高，回代准确率为100%，交叉验证准确率均在80%以上，最高可达93.75%。

Forecast of Wheat Stripe Rust by Upper-air Wind

Wheat stripe rust which can diffuse throw upper-air wind is one of pandemic diseases causing severe losses in China. In this article, forecast of wheat stripe rust was conducted based on the occurrence data of this disease and the climate data including temperature、humidity、rainfall and 300hPa、400hPa、500hPa、700hPa、850hPa upper-air wind collected from Pingliang in Gansu province, Hanzhong in Shanxi province and Zhengzhou in Henan province. Using principal component analysis and discriminant analysis to research the relation of the wheat stripe rust epidemic in these three places, and discuss the effect of upper-air wind in the epidemics of wheat stripe rust. The result showed that: there is a very intimate relation in the three areas and the upper-air wind data could be used to forecast the long-distance dispersal of wheat stripe rust .The forecast accuracy which used upper-air wind data were higher than that not be used. Especially in the condition of using 500hPa upper-air wind, the backtrack accuracy is 100%, the cross-validation accuracy is all above 80% , the best is cross-validation accuracy is 93.75%.