A mathematical model for soft-shell crawfish production

A mathematical model was developed for soft-shell crawfish production management based on the assumption that the crawfish molt interval follows a normal distribution. The mean and standard deviation of the molt interval, the two main parameters of the model, were estimated to be 48 and 15 days, respectively, based on experimental data for the red swamp crawfish (Procambarus clarkii). The model was further verified through comparison with experimental data. Simulations using the model were conducted to evaluate the impact of mortality and management strategies upon soft-shell crawfish production. The results indicated that mortality is a major factor in determining the production rate of a soft-shell crawfish facility. For a 6-month operation period, the predicted total production is 263% of the loading capacity for a mortality rate of 1%/day. This production will drop to 101% of the loading capacity with a mortality rate of 5%/day. Besides variations in the mortality rate, loading and replacement strategies also affect soft-shell crawfish operation, as demonstrated by the simulation results.