基于最大熵方法的未来气候变化下狼毒在中国潜在分布的预测

为了解入侵杂草狼毒Stellera chamaejasme在当前(1970—2000年)和未来气候情景下的扩散动态,采用最近邻体距离法选取样本数据,采用相关性分析和主成分分析选择环境变量,应用最大熵方法建立生态位模型用来预测当前(1970—2000年)和未来(2050年和2070年)气候变化下狼毒的潜在分布区,并应用Matlab软件计算气候变化下狼毒地理分布重心、平均海拔和等级分布区范围的动态变化。结果表明,当前(1970—2000年)气候条件下狼毒种群的潜在分布区从西南到东北呈带状分布,适生区等级随纬度的增加逐渐降低;未来气候变化下狼毒的潜在分布区将向西南方向和高海拔地区扩散,平均海拔将增高638 m,高适生区面积增长尤为迅速,2050年的相对增长率达51%;高寒草地将成为未来狼毒扩散的主要区域,因此应进一步加强对该区狼毒的防控。

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Stellera chamaejasme under climate change in China based on maximum entropy method

In order to understand the spreading dynamics of Stellera chamaejasme in the past (from 1970 to 2000) and future climate scenarios, the occurrence records and environment variables were respectively selected with the nearest neighbor distance method, correlation analysis and principal component analysis, and the ecological niche model was established by using the maximum entropy method, and then the potential distribution area of S. chamaejasme in the past and future (2050 and 2070) was predicted. The changes of the geographical distribution centroid, the average elevation and the range of hierarchical distribution areas under climate change were calculated with Matlab. The results showed that the potential areas of S. chamaejasme were spread from southwestern to northeastern China, and the level of potential distribution areas decreased gradually with increasing latitude. The potential geographical distribution of S. chamaejasme would spread to the southwestern and high altitude areas with the future climate change, and the average elevation increased by about 638 m. Especially, the areas of high adaption would grow rapidly, and the relative growing rate would be about 51% in 2050. In the future, the alpine grasslands would become the main area for the spreading of S. chamaejasme, and the prevention and control measures should be further strengthened in this area.