基于信息扩散技术的遵义市大暴雨超越概率评估模型

为揭示遵义市一年内受大暴雨袭击的乡镇次数风险特征,用辖区内乡镇区域自动站降水数据,通过信息扩散技术建立大暴雨超越概率评估模型,对大暴雨出现站次进行风险分析。结果表明：遵义市受夏季风系统影响,大暴雨通常出现在5-9月,集中在6、7月,大暴雨会带来严重经济损失和人员伤亡。使用乡镇区域自动站数据,有效提高了中、小尺度大暴雨系统分辨率。信息扩散技术方法,克服了乡镇区域自动站资料年代较短的实际问题。遵义市一年内最大可能出现34-40站次的大暴雨事件。出现34站次以上的大暴雨事件为常态事件,占总乡镇数的16％左右,遵义市大暴雨灾害风险较大。

Exceedance probability evaluation model of heavy rain in Zunyi City Based on information diffusion technology

In order to reveal the risk characteristics of the number of villages and towns attacked by heavy rain in Zunyi City in a year, based on the data of more than 200 regional automatic stations in villages and towns with high resolution in the jurisdiction, an evaluation model of heavy rain exceedance probability is established through information diffusion technology to analyze the risk of heavy rain stations. Since entering the industrialized society, the global ocean and atmosphere have gradually warmed, and the frequency, scope and intensity of extreme precipitation events have been increasing. Extreme precipitation events and hydrological damage pose a major threat to important transportation, water conservancy and energy infrastructure. Zunyi City, Guizhou Province is located in the slope zone from the northeast of Yunnan Guizhou Plateau to Hunan hills and Sichuan Basin. Its geographical location is between (27°08 ''- 29°12''N, 105°36'' - 108° 13''E) and its land area is 30762 km2. It belongs to the subtropical humid monsoon climate area. Affected by the summer monsoon, heavy rainstorms usually occur from May to September, concentrated in June and July. Heavy rain brought serious economic losses and casualties. The resolution of medium and small-scale heavy rain system is effectively improved by using the data of township regional automatic stations. The method of information diffusion technology overcomes the practical problem of short data age of township regional automatic stations. The probability estimate and transcendence probability of the research index are deduced by information technology. Due to the full use of incomplete information, the results are more reliable. The conclusions have reference value for short-term climate prediction of heavy rainstorm and emergency management of meteorological disasters. However, with the climate change, the observed samples of heavy rain will also change. The establishment of dynamic evaluation model is the direction of efforts in the future.Zunyi city is most likely to have 34-40 heavy rain events in a year, and more than 34 stations are normal events. There are 225 regional automatic stations in villages and towns under the jurisdiction, accounting for 16% of the stations in normal events, that is, the number of villages and towns attacked by heavy rain in a year is 15%. It can be seen that there is a great risk of heavy rain disaster in Zunyi City.