塔里木河中游典型绿洲土地利用/覆被及水资源动态变化研究

运用3S技术，并采用最大似然法分别对1989年和2010年渭干河-库车河绿洲两期Landsat-TM影像数据进行分类统计，获得了该区域22年来土地利用/土地覆被变化矢量图和定量统计数据，并利用不同时期该流域地表径流和地下水资源开发利用程度、农业种植结构、城市用水、天然植被用水，分析该区域土地类型变化和水资源的关系。研究结果表明：该地区耕地面积逐年增加，22年来增加耕地面积141 573.4 hm²，平均每年增加6741.59 hm²；天然植被草地面积急剧减少，平均每年减少7 682.38 hm²，城市用水由0.41亿m³增加至4.26亿m³，加之机电井数量骤增导致地下水位下降了2.34 m；导致地下水位下降，水质矿化度增高，天然植被大量减少，流域下游生态问题极其脆弱。

Study on LUCC and dynamic changes of water resource in oasis in midstream of Tarim River

By using 3S technology and supervised classification method, the Landsat-TM remote sensing images of Weigan-Kuqa oasis in 1989 and 2010 were statistically analyzed so as to obtain the quantitative statistic data and vector graphics on land use and land cover change (LUCC). Furthermore, the relation between land use change and water resource was investigated according to the exploitation of land surface runoff and groundwater resource, agricultural planting structure, urban water consumption and ecological vegetation water consumption. The results showed that: the arable land in the study area increased year by year, which was expanded by 141 573.4 hm² in 22 years, or 6 741.59 hm²·a^-1 in average; the woodland and grassland decreased drastic ally at the rate of 7 682.38 hm²·a^-1; the urban water consumption incre ased from 0.41×10⁸ m³ to 4.26×10⁸ m³, and the number of electromechanical wells increased rapidly, causing serious ecological problems in the downstream such as the falling of water tables, the increasing of water salinity and the reduction of natural vegetation.