黄土高原地区冬、春小麦对气候变化的适应度评价

以整个黄土高原地区为研究区域，建立作物的气候变化适应度模型，通过数理统计和地理空间分析方法，分析了自1960—2011年来，区域冬、春小麦对水分、温度、光照的适应度时空变化特征，并进行了适应度分区。结果表明：区域冬小麦全生育期的综合适应度达到了较强适应水平，有减小趋势；除返青—拔节期在中度适应水平外，其他生育期均为较强适应水平。春小麦全生育期的综合适应达到较强适应水平，有升高趋势；灌浆—成熟期最大，达到了较强适应水平；播种—出苗期最小，只达到中度适应水平。区域综合适应度由西北向东南呈增加趋势且与水分适应度分布的相关性最大，与温度适应度的相关性相对较小，与日照适应度的空间分布呈负相关；其倾向率在西部、西北和东北地区呈增加趋势；在南部和东南部呈减少趋势。冬小麦在返青—拔节期，春小麦在播种—出苗期需要加强人工管理，以增强其适应度；且气候变化对北部的春麦种植较为有利，而对南部的冬麦种植不利。

Evaluation of adaptation degree of winter and spring wheat to climate change in Loess Plateau

Taking Loess Plateau as the study area, the model of adaptation degree of crops to climate change was built. With mathematical statistics and geological spatial analysis methods, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of adaptation degree of winter and spring wheat to precipitation, temperature and light from 1960 to 2011 was analyzed, and the regional division of adaptation degree was conducted. The results indicated that the synthesized adaptation degree of winter wheat during the whole growth period was mid-high (76.2%) and tended to decrease; the adaptation degree of winter wheat was moderate during revival to jointing stage but mid-high in other stages. The synthesized adaptation degree of spring wheat during the whole growth period was mid-high (70.9%) and tended to increase; the adaptation degree of spring wheat was mid-high during filling to maturing stage but moderate during sowing to emergence stage. The regional synthesized adaptation degree tended to increase from northwest to southeast in Loess Plateau; it was highly correlated to precipitation adaptation degree, moderately correlated to temperature adaptation degree, but negatively correlated to light adaptation degree. The trend rate of synthesized adaptation degree tended to increase in the west, northwest and northeast parts, but tended to decrease in the south and southeast parts of Loess Plateau. The climate change was somewhat beneficial to the planting of spring wheat in the north part, but became more and more harmful to the planting of winter wheat in the south part. It is essential to strengthen the management of winter wheat during revival to jointing stage and spring wheat during sowing to emergence stage so as to improve their adaptability.