抵消机制背景下企业森林碳汇需求价格模拟

  目的  从森林碳汇需求角度，测算与分析企业减排成本、森林碳汇需求价格及政策影响因素，以期更全面了解森林碳汇的市场需求潜力，推进森林碳汇市场的发展。  方法  以北京、上海、湖北、广东4个碳交易试点省(市)为案例区，选择火电、化工、钢铁3个碳排放密集型代表行业，通过方向性距离函数方法计算89家2 759个样本减排单位的碳边际减排成本，进而采用罗宾斯坦恩博弈模型测算森林碳汇的需求价格，运用云模型测度不同行业和地区企业的森林碳汇需求价格并模拟政策变化对价格的影响。  结果  样本结果显示:火电、钢铁、化工行业的森林碳汇需求价格均值分别为631、556和575元·t?1，上海市、北京市、广东省和湖北省企业的均值分别为305、456、877和715元·t?1；云模型模拟分析结果表明:随着政府允许碳汇抵消比例的提高和碳汇补贴额度的增加，各行业和各省(市)企业对森林碳汇的需求价格上升，随着碳税征收率的提高，需求价格呈现下降趋势。  结论  不同地区不同行业的二氧化碳边际减排成本存在较大差异且逐年上升，森林碳汇是未来的减排趋势；目前火电行业企业已经正式启动全国碳排放权交易市场，云模型模拟结果显示:化工行业比其他2个行业更易受政策影响，因此合理的允许抵消比例与补贴政策组合下，火电、化工行业将会是未来森林碳汇的重大需求者。森林碳汇市场的发展潜力是巨大的。图4表5参28

Demand price simulation of forest carbon sink of enterprises based on offset mechanism

  Objective  From the perspective of forest carbon sequestration demand, this study aims to calculate and analyze enterprise emission reduction cost, forest carbon sequestration demand price and policy influencing factors, so as to better understand the market demand potential of forest carbon sequestration and promote the development of forest carbon sequestration market.  Method  Taking Beijing, Shanghai, Hubei and Guangdong as the case areas, three carbon emission intensive representative industries, namely thermal power, chemical industry and steel, were selected to calculate the carbon marginal emission reduction cost of 89 emission reduction units of 2 759 samples by directional distance function method. Then, the Robin Stein game model was used to measure the demand price of forest carbon sink, and the cloud model was used to measure the demand price of forest carbon sink of enterprises in different industries and regions, and the impact of policy changes on the price was simulated.  Result  The average demand price of forest carbon sequestration in thermal power industry, steel industry and chemical industry was 631, 556 and 575 yuan·t?1 respectively, and the average value of enterprises in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong and Hubei was 305, 456, 877 and 715 yuan·t?1 respectively. Cloud model simulation analysis showed that with the increase of the proportion of carbon sequestration offset and the increase of carbon sequestration subsidies, the demand price of forest carbon sequestration of various industries and provinces and cities increased. With the increase of carbon tax collection rate, the demand price showed a downward trend.  Conclusion  The marginal cost of carbon dioxide emission reduction in different regions and different industries varies greatly and increases year by year. Forest carbon sequestration is the trend of future emission reduction. At present, thermal power industry enterprises have officially launched the national carbon emission trading market. The cloud model simulation results show that the chemical industry is more vulnerable to policy influence than the other two industries. Therefore, under the reasonable combination of allowable offset ratio and subsidy policy, thermal power and chemical industry will be the major demanders of forest carbon sequestration in the future, and the development potential of forest carbon sequestration market is huge.[Ch, 4 fig. 5 tab. 28 ref.]