河流随机水质预测模型及其应用

在分析河流域污染特点的基础上，建立了一个二维随机水质数学模型，该水质模型把一维水质随机降解模型和二维迁移扩散模型相结合，同时考虑了各水质参数K1，K2，K3和河道横向扩散系数Dy的随机性影响，该模型适用于各种水力复杂条件和排污范围的水体，对于平面二维的任一个计算点，它都能给出该点水质浓度随机变化的概率分布，用该模型对三峡建库后的香溪河库湾水质进行预测，其成果可为三峡库区水环境保护及规划治理提供设计数据。

Stochastic Prediction Model for River Water Quality and Its Application

On the basis of discussion on the pollution characters of river basin,a new two-dimensional random water quality model is established in the paper.The model combines one-dimensional random water quality model and two-dimensional water transferring-diffusing model,and considers the stochastic influence of the water quality parameters,such as K_1,K_2,K_3,and the river cross-sectional diffusion coefficient Dy.The model suits for different complicated hydraulic condition because it can figure out the probability distribution of water pollutants' concentration for any point in the plane of the river.It can also be easily extended to the similar water quality models like BOD-NOD-DO.The water quality at the firth of Xiangxi River after construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir is analyzed and predicted with the model subsequently.The results in the paper can be used as reference data for protecting and programming water environment in the reservoir area.