开封市主要农作物对积温变化的响应分析

用数理统计学和模糊数学方法分析了开封市主要农作物生长期气候变暖趋势、积温与主要农作物产量的关系,建立数据库,在Excel软件的支持下,利用二阶多项式将小麦、玉米、棉花产量和积温分离成社会量和气候量进行研究。结果表明,开封市主要农作物生长期的积温和产量趋势均上升,气候变暖对开封市主要农作物产量利大于弊,小麦生长期极端最低气温上升有利于冬小麦生长,棉花、玉米生长期极端最高气温下降,有利于棉花、玉米产量增加。掌握气候变化规律,积极采用有效措施,能减少因气象灾害造成的损失和提高全市主要农作物产量。

Response Analysis of Main Crop to Accumulated Temperature Change in Kaifeng City

With mathematical statistics and fuzzy mathematics method for analysis of climate warming trend of main crop growth period in Kaifeng City,the relationship between accumulated temperature and main crop yield,database was created,with the support of Excel software,the yield of wheat,corn,cotton and accumulated temperature were separated into social yield and climate amount using two order polynomial.The results showed that the trend of accumulated temperature and yield of main crop growth period was rised in Kaifeng City,the benifit of climate warming on main crop yield in Kaifeng City was more than fraud.In wheat growth period,the rise of extreme lowest air temperature was conducive to the growth of winter wheat,extreme maximum temperature drop of cotton,corn growth period was helpful for cotton,corn yield increases.Knowing the climate change and taking effective measures actively could reduce the loss caused by meteorological disasters and improve the main crop yield in Kaifeng City.