Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) mortality in relation to the winter mixed layer depth in the Kuroshio Extension region

A drastic population change in Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) has been noted as being related to winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the Kuroshio Extension region. The former studies suggest two possible explanations. One is that temperature itself affects sardine. The other is that SST represents the environmental change of the Kuroshio Extension region and other causes directly affecting sardine. In this study, we found that sardine mortality from post‐larva to age 1 negatively correlated with the winter mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Kuroshio Extension region from 1979 to 1993. During the period of a deep winter mixed layer (during the early 1980s), sardine mortality was low, whereas mortality was high when the winter mixed layer was shallow (during the late 1980s to early 1990s). By using a lower trophic‐level ecosystem model forced by the observed time series of MLD, SST, light intensity and nutrient data, we found that the estimated spring zooplankton density drastically varies from year to year and has a significant negative correlation with sardine mortality. The inter‐annual variation of spring zooplankton density is caused by the winter MLD variation. During the deep winter mixed layer years, a phytoplankton bloom occurs in spring, whereas during the shallow winter mixed layer years, the bloom occurs in winter. The results of our study suggest that the decline in the Japanese sardine population during the late 1980s to early 1990s was due to an insufficient spring food supply in the Kuroshio Extension region where sardine larvae and juvenile are transported.