闽江下游最高洪水位的长期振动及其预测

采用改进的谐波回归算法，对闽江竹岐站年最高洪水位序列进行周期识别和分析论证。结果表明：闽江下游洪水县有１５年和７年的长期振动，这种振动可以认为是大范围物理背影造成的响应，其中７年的周期振动很可能与地极移植移动有关。同时，还对相应的模拟方程进行评定，并检验了谐波分析的预测结果。最后给晃江竹岐站来未来３年内，各年最高洪水位的估计。

Long-Term Vibration of Maximum Flood Levels in Lower Reach of Minjiang River and Their Prediction

The annual maximum flood levels series of the Zhuqi Station of Minjiang River are periodically recognized and analyzed by using the improved harmonic regression analysis method. The results show that the flood in lower reach of Minjiang River has 15 years and 7 years periodical long-term vibration. These vibration form may be recognized by large area physical background, in which the periodical vibration of 7 years may be related to the motion of earth poles. Meantime, the corresponding simulating equations are evaluated, and the prediction results of harmonic analysis are checked. Finally ,the annual maximum flood levels of Zhuqi Station of Minjiang River in the coming three years are given.