我国粮食供给波动原因的系统分析

在建立我国粮食供给波动产生和传导图的基础上，分析了粮食供给波动产生或传导的系统内和系统外原因及不同原因在系统中的不同功能，重点分析屯市场波动的放大和传导过程，包括农民市场供给粮波动放大的根本原因分析，完全自由竞争的中国粮食供求模型分析和政府行为的作用分析。认为我国粮食供给波动的深层次的原因是种粮比较利益的波动，其深层次原因是农民小生产与大市场的矛盾。平抑粮食供给波动要求发挥下诊效的宏观调控作用。宏

Systems Analysis of Chinese Food Supply Fluctuation

Based on the establishment of Chinese food supply fluctuation magnifying and conducting figure, the external causes for the food supply fluctuation magnifying and conducting system are distinguished from internal causes. Different functions caused by different causes are ana-lyzed. The analyses are focused on the magnifying and conducting process of market fluctuationwhich include the analyses of the basic reasons for the magnification of farmer market supply foodfluctuation, Chinese food supply and demand model under the condition of complete free competition and the function of the government actions. The fluctuation of comparative benefit of foodproduction is the deep reason causing Chinese food supply fluctuation, lying the contradiction be-tween the small scale of production and the big market. Food supply fluctuation can be stabilizedby macroeconomic regulations, but effective macroeconomics regulation must be based on themarket distribution of food resources and the development of multiple food market principalparts.