黄河下游地区土地利用和生态系统服务价值的时空演变

基于黄河下游地区1990-2015年土地利用分类数据，运用土地利用变化动态度、土地利用转移矩阵，探究不同土地利用类型的变化程度及转移情况，运用当量因子法、热点分析、重心模型、地理探测器探究黄河下游地区县域尺度生态系统服务价值的时空演变及其空间分异。结果表明：1）耕地、草地、未利用地面积逐渐减少，建设用地面积增加，耕地是建设用地面积增加的主要贡献者，建设用地扩张存在侵占耕地的现象。2）从时间尺度看，地区生态系统服务价值逐年减少；从空间尺度看，县域尺度的高值区逐渐减少，低值区逐渐增加；从地均生态系统服务价值的变化率来看，大部分县区的地均生态系统服务价值呈现持续降低趋势。3）地均生态系统服务价值的高值区与低值区空间集聚程度明显，但有逐渐弱化的趋势；生态系统服务价值的重心始终分布在山东省郓城县，重心迁移与两地区之间生态系统服务价值变化差值有关。4）黄河下游地区县域尺度地均生态系统服务价值空间分异受自然因素和社会经济因素共同作用的影响，是不同驱动因子共同作用的结果，其中人为综合影响指数对区域生态系统服务空间分异的影响最大。

Spatial-temporal evolution of land use and ecosystem service value in the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River Region

Abstract: Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is one of the important driving forces of ecosystem services change. Because ecosystem services depend on different ecological and geographical processes on different spatial and temporal scales, it is of great significance to study ecosystem services based on LUCC. In recent years, the LUCC in the Lower Yellow River has changed obviously, which has a huge impact on the regional ecological environment. Strengthening the research on the land use and Ecosystem Services Value (ESV) can effectively promote the protection of the ecological environment in the Lower Yellow River, which is of great significance for the sustainable development of the whole Yellow River basin ecosystem. Based on the land use classification data of the Lower Yellow River from 1990 to 2015, using the land use change degree and land use transfer matrix, this paper explored the spatiotemporal distribution of land transfer change, and used the equivalent factor method, hot spot analysis and focus model to explore the spatiotemporal evolution and spatial heterogeneity of the county ecosystem service value in the Lower Yellow River. The results showed that: 1) During 1990-2015, the area of farmland, grassland and unused land decreased by 2894, 1476 and 856 km2 respectively, and the area of built-up land increased by 4598 km2. Farmland was the main contributor of the increase of built-up land. 2) From the perspective of spatiotemporal scale, the ESV of the Lower Yellow River decreased by1.885 billion yuan in 25 years, and the areas with higher average ESV decreased gradually, while the areas with lower average ESV increased gradually. The ESV at the county level changed obviously, and most of the regions showed a downward trend. Sensitivity analysis showed that the ESV of the Lower Yellow River was inelastic to the value coefficient. Even though the value coefficient was uncertain, the calculation of ecosystem services in the whole study area was still stable, which could prove that the research results were credible. 3) From 1990 to 2015, the spatial concentration degree of the high value and low value areas of average ESV in the Lower Yellow River was obvious, but there was a trend of gradual weakening. The barycenter of ESV was located in Yuncheng County, Shandong Province. The ecosystem service value of Shandong Province was always higher than Henan Province. 4)The spatial differentiation of ecosystem service value in the lower reaches of the Yellow River was influenced by the interaction of natural factors, social factors and economic factors, and was the result of the interaction of different driving factors, among which the human comprehensive impact index has the greatest impact on the spatial differentiation of ecosystem service. Therefore, the ecological protection of the Yellow River should strengthen the protection of the vulnerable areas of the ecosystem, strengthen the construction of regional ecological barriers, build the evaluation system of the coordinated development of the ecological economy, and realize the high-quality development of the ecological economy in the Lower Yellow River.