月相和温度对棉红铃虫成虫种群动态的影响

采用红铃虫性诱剂,监测了湖南安乡地区2012—2015年红铃虫成虫的种群动态。并用一种基于非凸惩罚的稳健线性回归模型,分析红铃虫的性诱蛾量与温度、月相之间的关系,同时对数据中存在的离群值进行检测。结果表明,月相对棉红铃虫活动有显著影响,但诱蛾量与月球引力无直接关系。主要表现为夜间光线越弱,红铃虫的诱蛾量越大;温度对红铃虫诱蛾量有显著抑制作用,15~35 ℃时,随温度的上升,红铃虫诱蛾量显著下降。

Effects of lunar phase and temperature on population dynamics of adult Pectinophora gossypiella Saunders

Activities of adult pink bollworm were monitored by sex pheromone trap during 2012-2015 in Anxiang County of Hunan Province. A robust linear model based on nonconcave penalized regression was applied to investigate the relationship between the number of trapped moths of pink bollworm and two factors, temperature and lunar phase, and to detect the outliers simultaneously due to the presence of outliers in the collected data. The results indicated that there was a significant linear relationship between lunar phase and activities of adult pink bollworm, while no direct association between lunar gravitation and amount of trapped moths was found from the analysis. The weaker the light at night, the more the number of moths trapped by sex pheromone. Furthermore, the analyzed results illustrated that temperature was a definite inhibitory factor on the trapped moths of pink bollworm. Ranged within 15-35 ℃, as the temperature rises, amount of trapped pink bollworm moths tends to drop markedly.