中国农业现代化评价及其空间格局演化

从投入、产出、生产服务3维度构建农业现代化评价指标体系,基于2000—2016年省域面板数据,采用熵权法实证分析了中国农业现代化时空演化规律与空间溢出效应。结果表明,2000—2016年中国整体层面的农业现代化发展水平呈上升趋势,并呈现出东高西低、北高南低的空间分异特征,分化为以黄淮海平原为核心的高值区和以西南山区为核心的低值区。农业现代化存在显著的空间集聚趋势与正向空间溢出效应,局域空间集聚方式以高-高集聚和低-低集聚型为主。应制定差异化的农业现代化发展提升策略,重点推动山区农业现代化水平的提升,并充分发挥地理上的空间溢出与辐射带动效用。

Evaluation of China’s agricultural modernization and evolution of its spatial pattern

The evaluation index system of agricultural modernization was constructed from three dimensions of input, output and production services. Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016, the temporal and spatial evolution law and spatial spillover effect of agricultural modernization in China were empirically analyzed by using the method of entropy weight. It was shown that from 2000 to 2016, China’s overall level of agricultural modernization development showed an upward trend, and exhibited the characteristics of spatial differentiation of high in east, low in west, high in north and low in south. It was divided into high-value areas with the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain as the core and low-value areas with the southwest mountainous areas as the core. There were significant spatial agglomeration trends and positive spatial spillover effects in agricultural modernization. The local spatial agglomeration mode was dominated by high-high and low-low. The government should formulate strategies to improve the development level of agricultural modernization in different areas, focus on promoting the level of agricultural modernization in mountainous areas, and give full play to the spatial spillover and radiation-driven effect.