基于MaxEnt模型预测外来入侵植物刺果瓜在中国的潜在地理分布

为明确外来入侵植物刺果瓜 Sicyos angulatus在我国的潜在地理分布，基于MaxEnt模型、ArcGIS软件及全球分布数据，在历史气候条件及未来气候条件下 （低强迫情景SSP126和高强迫情景SSP585）预测刺果瓜在中国的潜在地理分布。结果显示， MaxEnt模型的曲线下面积（area undercurve， AUC）值为0.977，表明模型具有较高的可靠性；气温季节性变化、最热月的最高温、最干月降水量和最湿季节的降水量是影响刺果瓜在中国潜在地理分布的4个关键环境变量；历史气候条件下刺果瓜主要发生在中国东部、中部和西部，适生区总面积占中国陆地总面积的23.29%；未来气候条件下，刺果瓜在中国的适生区范围有所减少， SSP126和SSP585情景下刺果瓜在中国的适生区总面积分别为186.10×10⁴ km²和162.68×10⁴ km²，分别占中国陆地总面积的19.35%和16.91%，但还是主要覆盖黄淮海平原夏播玉米区和南方丘陵玉米区等产区，质心由南向北移动。

Potential geographical distribution of alien invasive bur cucumber Sicyos angulatus in China based on MaxEnt model

This study was carried based on MaxEnt model, ArcGIS software and global distribution data to predict the potential geographical distribution of bur cucumber Sicyos angulatus, an alien invasive plant, under the current and two future climate scenarios (including low forcing scenario SSP126 and high forcing scenario SSP585). The results showed that the average area under curve (AUC) of MaxEnt model is 0.977, suggesting the prediction results highly reliable. Temperature seasonality, the max temperature of the warmest month, the total precipitation of the driest month, the total precipitation of the wettest quarter are the four key environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of the S. angulatus. Under the historical conditions, the potential geographical distribution of the S. angulatus mainly occurrs in the eastern, central and western regions in China, and the total area of suitable areas accounts for 23.29% of the total land area of China. Under the future climate scenarios, the range of suitable areas for S. angulatus would reduce. Under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, the total area of the suitable area of S. angulatus in China is 186.10×10⁴ km², 162.68×10⁴ km², accounting for 19.35% and 16.91% of the total land area of China, respectively, it would mainly cover Huang-Huai-Hai Plain summer-maize region and the southern China hilly maize region, and the centroid would move from south to north.