基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS的宽叶酢浆草潜在地理分布分析

为探究我国检疫性有害生物——宽叶酢浆草Oxalis latifolia在世界范围内的潜在分布情况，通过建立MaxEnt模型并结合ArcGIS软件，对宽叶酢浆草在历史气候和未来气候2个情景下的潜在适生区进行预测，并分析影响其分布的关键气候因素。结果表明，宽叶酢浆草的适生区在世界范围内呈现以沿海向内地发展的趋势，在全球除南极洲外的大洲均有不同程度分布；在我国多分布在南方海拔偏高地区以及南部和东南部沿海地区。在未来气候变化下，宽叶酢浆草的全球适生区范围无明显变化，存在中、高适生区向低适生区转变的趋势。宽叶酢浆草在我国的适生区总面积于未来气候条件下有所降低，特别是在SSP126气候情景下即温室气体排放量较低的情景下。分析结果显示，影响宽叶酢浆草潜在地理分布的关键气候因子是温度季节性变化标准差，其次是最暖季度平均温度。

Analysis of the potential geographical distribution of weed Oxalis latifolia based on MaxEnt and ArcGIS

In order to investigate the global potential distribution of weed Oxalis latifolia, a quarantine pest in China, the potential habitat of O. latifolia under historical climate and two future scenarios were predicted using MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS, meanwhile the factors affecting its distribution was analyzed. The O. latifolia was predicted to distribute from coastal areas to inland areas in all continents throughout the world, except Antarctic; and distribute in the southern high-altitude areas and the southern and southeastern coastal areas in China. Under the future climate conditions, the O. latifolia habitat would not change significantly worldwide, but shift from medium and high habitats to low habitats. Within China, the overall area of the suitable zone would decrease in the future especially under SSP126 with low greenhouse gas emissions. The key climatic factor influencing the potential geographical distribution of O. latifolia is the standard deviation of seasonal variation in temperature, followed by the warmest quarterly mean temperature.