基于CLIMEX模型的玉蜀黍霜指霉菌入侵风险分析

为明确我国禁止进境的植物检疫性有害生物——玉蜀黍霜指霉菌Peronosclerospora maydis在中国的适生性以及入侵风险，采用CLIMEX 2.0软件分析其适生性，用ArcGIS 10.2软件确定其适生范围和适生程度，并采用多指标综合评判法量化分析其入侵我国的风险等级。结果表明，玉蜀黍霜指霉菌在我国的适生范围主要分布在长江以南的西南山地丘陵玉米种植区和南方丘陵玉米种植区，高适生区主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、重庆、广东、广西、湖南、江西、福建、海南和台湾等省 （区、市）。玉蜀黍霜指霉菌作为专性寄生菌，可在玉米整个生长季侵染危害，经多指标综合评判法分析并计算得到其风险综合评价值R为2.12，表明该病菌入侵我国的风险等级属高度危险，一旦入侵，势必对粮食安全、农业安全和生态安全带来巨大威胁，建议加强检疫监测，严防该病菌入侵。

Invasion risk analysis of downy mildew pathogen Peronosclerospora maydis based on CLIMEX model

In order to clarify the invasion risk of downy mildew pathogen Peronosclerospora maydis, a phytosanitary fungal pest prohibited from entering China, CLIMEX 2.0 and ArcGIS 10.2 were used to analyze its suitable range and degree. The risk level of its invasion into China was quantitatively analyzed using the multi-index comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that the suitable range of P. maydis in China was mainly distributed in southwest and southern China hilly corn-growing areas. The highly suitable area included Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Hainan, Taiwan and other provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities). As an obligate parasite, P. maydis could infect maize for the whole growing season. According to the multiindex comprehensive evaluation, the comprehensive evaluation value of risk (R) was 2.12, indicating a high invasion risk of P. maydis into China. Once it invades China, it is bound to bring great threat to food security, agricultural security and ecological security. It is suggested to strengthen quarantine monitoring to prevent the invasion of this pathogen.