基于VSD模型的滇中地区森林火灾脆弱性影响因素分析

为了准确衡量森林火灾风险状况,提出了基于VSD模型的森林火灾脆弱性概念,并分析森林火灾脆弱性的影响因素。通过对暴露度、敏感度和适应能力的分析,选取森林覆盖率、地方财政收入等9个评价指标,构建滇中森林火灾脆弱性评价指标体系。结合层次分析法、加权综合评价法,对滇中2008—2017年森林火灾脆弱性进行评估。结果表明,指标权重大小排序为年降水量(0.223)>地方财政收入(0.177)>年平均气温(0.123)>林业产值(0.107)>农民人均纯收入(0.097)>人口密度(0.085)>森林覆盖率(0.067)=城镇人口比例(0.067)>人均GDP(0.054);滇中地区各城市森林火灾脆弱性指标值与森林火灾次数存在强相关性,与受害森林面积、受灾率存在中度相关性,能够准确反映出森林火灾风险状况。

Analysis of Factors Affecting Forest Fire Vulnerability in Central Yunnan Based on VSD Model

In order to accurately measure the risk of forest fire,the concept of forest fire vulnerability was proposed based on VSD model,and the influencing factors of forest fire vulnerability were analyzed.The nine evaluation indexes,such as forest coverage rate and local fiscal revenue,were selected to construct the evaluation index system of forest fire vulnerability in central Yunnan based on the analysis of exposure,sensitivity and adaptability.Combined with the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted comprehensive evaluation method,the vulnerability of forest fire in central Yunnan from 2008 to 2017 was evaluated.The result showed that the index weights were ranked as annual precipitation(0.223)>local fiscal revenue(0.177)>annual average temperature(0.123)>forestry output value(0.107)>per capita net income of farmers(0.097)>population density(0.085)>forest coverage rate(0.067)=proportion of urban population(0.067)>per capita GDP(0.054).The forest fire vulnerability index values of cities in central Yunnan were strongly correlated with the frequency of forest fires,moderately correlated with the affected forest area and disaster rate,which could accurately reflect the status of forest fire risk.