| 基于灰色残差-马尔可夫藕合模型的农业需水量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵玲萍,王俊,张凤娥,董良飞,涂保华. 基于灰色残差-马尔可夫藕合模型的农业需水量预测研究[J]. 节水灌溉, 2010, 0(11) |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵玲萍 王俊 张凤娥 董良飞 涂保华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 常州大学环境与安全工程学院,江苏,常州,213016
2. 天津城市建设学院基础部,天津,300384 |
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| 摘 要： | 将灰色残差模型与马尔可夫预测模型结合起来,建立灰色残差-马尔可夫藕合模型来预测农业需水量.先用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行预测,预测精度较低,因此对GM(1,1)模型进行一定程度的改进,建立灰色残差GM(1,1)模型;再用马尔可夫预测模型来判断残差预测值的符号,以提高预测精度.最后用华东某城市2002-2008年的农业用水量作为历史数据进行了预测,结果表明预测精度明显提高.预测结果可以为研究区域今后的节水灌溉发展提供理论依据,来有效地指导今后该地区的节水灌溉.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色GM(1,1)模型 残差 马尔可夫 农业需水量 |
Application of Gray Residual Error Model and Markov Model in Agricultural Water Requirement Prediction |
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| ZHAO Ling-ping , WANG Jun , ZHANG Feng-e , DONG Liang-fei , TU Bao-hua. Application of Gray Residual Error Model and Markov Model in Agricultural Water Requirement Prediction[J]. Water Saving Irrigation, 2010, 0(11) |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Ling-ping WANG Jun ZHANG Feng-e DONG Liang-fei TU Bao-hua |
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| Affiliation: | ZHAO Ling-ping1,WANG Jun2,ZHANG Feng-e1,DONG Liang-fei1,TU Bao-hua1(1.Department of Environmental and Safety Engineering,Changzhou University,Changzhou 213016,Jiangsu China,2.Department of Fundamental Subject,Tianjin Institute of Urban Construction,Tianjin 300384,China) |
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| Abstract: | Gray residual error model and Markov model are combined together to form gray-Markov model in this paper.The Gray GM(1,1) model is firstly used to predict and the precision is low.So the gray residual error model is formed to improve the GM(1,1) model.Then the residual error predicted value is judged by using Markov model to improve precision.In the end,the prediction is performed through using the agricultural water consumption data of a city in East China from 2002 to 2008.The result shows that the predic... |
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| Keywords: | gray GM(1 1) model residual error Markov agricultural water requirement |
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