利用风险预测方法甄选农业气象灾害指标初探

农业气象灾害指标的确定是进行农业气象灾害预测预报和防灾减灾的基础,本文运用风险预测方法探索农业气象灾害指标的甄选。以农业旱涝指标K和降水距平百分率Pa为例,分别构建山西运城冬小麦1981-2000年、1981-2001年和1981-2002年播种-成熟、返青-拔节和拔节-成熟等3个生育阶段K指标和Pa的时间序列,运用马尔柯夫转移概率和农业气象灾害指标时间序列的概率密度函数对2001-2003年农业旱涝状态进行风险预测。结果表明,K指标预测状态与实际一致,而Pa效果较差,说明K指标在反映山西运城冬小麦旱涝指标上比Pa应用效果要好。同时研究也表明,运用风险预测方法甄选农业旱涝灾害指标是一种简单、快捷和有效的农业气象灾害指标挑选方法。

Agro-meteorology Disaster Index Selection Based on Risk Prediction Method

Index selection was basic for forecast and prediction,mitigation and prevention to agro-meteorology disasters.A case study on crop drought-flood index（K） and precipitation anomaly percentage（Pa） was conducted.A series of time sequences on K and Pa about three growth stage of winter wheat（sowing to mature,regreen to jointing,jointing to mature） during 1981-2000,1981-2001,1981-2002,was established in Yuncheng,Shanxi province.Drought and flood disasters during 2001-2003 were predicted by using Markov model and probability distribution function.The results showed that prediction based on K was consistent with the real situation from 2001 to 2003,as the relative veracity was only 55.5% based on Pa.It was indicated that the K as crop drought and flood index was more effective than Pa.The method of selection agro-meteorology disaster index based on risk prediction was simple and convenient,which could recommend to a new method for selecting agro-meteorology index.