2010年湖南汛期13次暴雨过程的力子天气学分析

采用力子天气学方法,通过对2010年4月以来出现在湖南的13次区域性暴雨天气过程进行合成分析。结果表明,2010年湖南汛期的13次暴雨均与自组织的辐合水汽流密切相关,暴雨是自组织辐合水汽流爆发后所产生的必然结果;自组织辐合水汽流的孕育区对应未来12～36 h出现暴雨的区域,自组织辐合水汽流孕育区一旦消失,则未来12～36 h不会有区域性暴雨出现;自组织辐合水汽流孕育区产生在大尺度南北力子偶的交汇域。南北力子偶是否存在可以作为汛期区域性暴雨的短期预报模式。

Analysis on Lizi Synoptic Meteorology of 13 Rainstorm Processes during the Flood Season of Hunan Province in 2010

By lizi synoptic method,we analyzed the synthesis of 13 regional rainstorm weather processes occurring since April 2010 in Hunan.Results indicated that,all rainstorm was closely related to the self-organization convergence airflow,storm was the inevitable result of the self-organization convergence airflow;the initiation zone attributing to self-organization of convergent airflow corresponded to rainstorm area at next 12-36 hours;Once the self-organization of convergent airflow disappeared,there was no regional rainstorm at next 12-36 hours;the self-organization of convergent airflow in the breeding areas generated in the large-scale north and south of lizi intersection domain,therefore a new model of rainstorm forecast were formed.