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气候变化对典型草原区牧草气候生产潜力的影响
引用本文:赵慧颖. 气候变化对典型草原区牧草气候生产潜力的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2007, 28(3): 281-284
作者姓名:赵慧颖
作者单位:内蒙古呼伦贝尔市气象局,海拉尔,012008
基金项目:国家自然科学基金;内蒙古呼伦贝尔市科技攻关项目
摘    要:利用典型草原区45a的气候和牧草产量资料,应用数理统计方法分析了典型草原区气候变化规律及其对牧草气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明:典型草原区气候暖干化趋势明显,45a的年平均气温上升了1.6℃,最近20a上升了0.7℃,年降水量变化总体上呈减少态势,45a中年降水量下降了27mm,最近20a下降了40mm;降水量小是限制该地区牧草气候生产潜力的主导因素,由此造成45a间牧草气候生产力平均下降率为200.2kghm^-2a^-1,该区气候资源利用率也比较低,最近14a的平均值仅为37.3%,尚有60%的潜力可以开发;用气温、降水量与牧草气候生产力建立的气候评估模式通过了0.01信度检验,拟合的平均相对误差〈4.7%,温度与降水对其综合影响为:温度每降低1℃,降水增加1mm时,牧草气候生产潜力分别增加47.9kghm^-2a^-1和12.1kghm^-2a^-1。

关 键 词:牧草气候生产潜力  气候资源利用率  气候变化  典型草原区
修稿时间:2007-02-10

Impacts of Climate Change on Forage Potential Climate Productivity in Typical Grassland
ZHAO Hui-ying. Impacts of Climate Change on Forage Potential Climate Productivity in Typical Grassland[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2007, 28(3): 281-284
Authors:ZHAO Hui-ying
Affiliation:Meteorological Bureau of Hulunbeier City, Hailaer 012008, China
Abstract:The data of forage phenomenon and production in the last 45 years in the typical prairie area was used to analyze climate change and its impacts on forage production, by using mathematical statistics method. The results showed that the drier and warmer trend was significant in the typical steppe area. The average temperature increased by 0.7℃ and 1.6℃ in recent 20 and 45 years respectively. The annual precipitation decreased generally. It dropped 40mm and 27mm in the recent 20 and 45 years respectively. The precipitation was the dominant factor constrained the production potential in this area. The average forage productivity decreased 200.2kg/ha during last 45 years. The rate of the climate resource utilization was with 37.3%. The model based simulation results showed that the potential of forage production increased 47.9kg/ha per year and 12. 1kg/ha per year separately, when the temperature decreased 1.0℃ and rainfall increased 1 mm respectively.
Keywords:Forage potential climate productivity  Rate of climate resource utilization  Climate change  Typical prairie area
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