利用草面温度预报霜的分析

通过对来宾市城区的国家气象观测站2006年10月～2008年2月草面温度和露地表面温度的对比分析，结果表明：草面温度在夜间比地面温度低，在秋冬季更容易达到0℃以下，草面温度能更好地反映出形成霜的温度变化过程。利用最低草面温度和17；00～20．00草面温度的降温幅度建立2级判别方程Y=-0．0845xl—0．01302x2。结果显示：该判别方程显著，对霜的预报较为准确，同时利用露点温度和判别图弥补了判别方程存在的不足，进一步提高了利用草面温度预报霜的准确性。

Analysis on the Forecasting of Frost by Grassland Temperature

Through comparatively analyzing the grassland temperature and open ground temperature recorded by Laibin Meteorological Bureau during Oct.2006-Feb.2008,this study obtained results as follows: grassland temperature is lower than open ground temperature and easily get to below 0 ℃ in autumn and winter,which could better demonstrate the temperature changing process of frost forming.A secondary discriminant equation y=0.084 5x1-0.013 0x2 was established by using the lowest grassland temperature and the decrease range of grassland temperature during 17:00-20:00,the results showed that this equation worked well and forecasted the frost accurately,and meanwhile,by using dew-point temperature and discriminant picture it made up the shortages of discriminant equation and further improved the accuracy of frost forecasting with grassland temperature.