北疆农业热量资源时空变化及其对熟制的影响研究

利用1961—2012年北疆48个代表站的年平均气温、无霜冻期和≥10℃积温气象资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验和Arc GIS中反距离权重插值等方法分析了北疆各县市农业热量资源的时空变化及其对熟制的影响。结果表明,近52年北疆年平均气温、无霜冻期和≥10℃积温分别以0.36℃·10a-1、4.7 d·10a-1和80.66℃·d·10 a-1的倾向率呈增加及延长趋势,其中塔城地区、伊犁河谷和阿勒泰地区较其它地区增温明显。各气象要素均在20世纪80年代之后发生突变,突变年后农业热量资源增加明显,作物熟制从仅满足一年一熟逐渐向多熟制发展,表现为,突变后一年三熟的地区较之前以吐鲁番市为中心向周边地区扩大,一年二熟的地区扩大到精河县-克拉玛依市沿线以东,克拉玛依-奇台-鄯善沿线以南天山以北的大部分地区和伊犁河谷西部以及哈密市周边地区,而二年三熟地区增加较小,一年一熟的县市呈继续向高纬度地区减少的趋势变化。

Spatial-temporal variation of agricultural-heat resources and its impacts on multiple cropping in the North Area of Xinjiang

Based on the annual mean temperature ,frost-free period and accumulated temperature ≥ 10 ℃ from 48 meteorological stations in the north area of Xinjiang from 1961 to 2012 ,the spatial-temporal variation of agricultural-heat resources and its impact on multiple cropping was analyzed using linear regressions ,Mann -Kendall test and Inverse Dis-tance Weighted method .The results showed that the annual mean temperature ,daily meteorological data in frostless peri-od and accumulated temperature ≥ 10 ℃ were increased by 0 .36 ℃ ·10a - 1 ,80 .66 ℃ ·d·10a - 1 and 4 .7d·10a - 1 ( P <0 .01) from 1961 to 2012 ,respectively .They were increased more obviously in Tacheng ,Ili River Valley and Altai than others .Effects of the heat resource became enhanced .The cropping pattern in the North Area of Xinjiang changed from one crop per year to multiple crops per year after 1980s ,which could be demonstrated by the expansion of the area with three crops per year from the central area to the surrounding areas in Tulufan after the year of abrupt changes .The area of two crops per year was expanded to east of Jinghe - Karamay ,most north areas of Karamay - Qitai - hanshan and South Tianshan ,west of Ili River Valley and surrounding areas near Hami City .The integrated heat resources meeting the requirements of three crops per two years were increased slowly ,and counties with one crop per year continued to display-ing a decreasing variation trend toward high latitudes .