新疆呼图壁河径流时间序列分析

基于呼图壁河石门水文站1956—2011年的年径流数据,采用Morlet小波分析和R/S分析方法,对新疆呼图壁河流域径流周期、变化特征和未来趋势进行分析和预测。研究结果表明:(1)通过对呼图壁河1956—2011年径流量的分析发现,径流时间序列存在5 a、10 a、18 a和28 a左右的震荡周期,18 a尺度震荡周期最强,其次是28a尺度。18 a时间尺度上的震荡在56 a研究时段内均较强,且存在4个丰水期和5个枯水期;28 a震荡周期在56 a尺度时段内相对较强,存在3个丰水期和3个枯水期,目前处于偏丰期;(2)利用R/S分析呼图壁河径流量序列,Hurst指数为0.6442,存在明显的赫斯特现象,这就意味着未来一段时间的径流量与过去具有同样的增加趋势。

Time series analysis for river runoff of Hutubi River in Xinjiang

Based on the annual runoff data of Shimen Hydrological Station in Hutubi River during 1956 to 2011,using the methods of Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis,the runoff period,variation characteristics and future trend of Hutubi River Basin in Xinjiang have been analyzed and forecasted.The research results showed that:(1) Through the analysis for the runoff in Hutubi River during 1956-2011,found the runoff time series to exist the oscillation period about 5 a,10 a,18 a and 28 a,among them the oscillation cycle of 18 a scale was the strongest,secondly was the 28 a scale.The oscillation on the time scale of 18 a in the 56 years research period was more stronger and existed 4 wet seasons and 5 dry seasons;the oscillation cycle of 28 a in 56 years period was relatively strong,and existed 3 wet seasons and 3 dry three seasons,at present was at the rather rich period.(2) Using the R/S to analyze the runoff sequence of Hutubi River,the Hurst index was 0.6442 and existed obvious Hearst phenomenon,which means that the runoff in future will be the increasing trend with the same as the past.