| 海南省森林资源发展趋势的灰色预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈秀龙,陈磊夫,莫杏兴,陈秋波. 海南省森林资源发展趋势的灰色预测[J]. 林业调查规划, 2007, 32(3): 35-39 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈秀龙 陈磊夫 莫杏兴 陈秋波 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 华南热带农业大学,海南,儋州,571737;增城市林业局,广东,增城,511300 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 依据海南省1979年森林资源清查及后续4次森林资源复查成果,运用灰色系统理论构建森林资源的非等间距GM(1,1)模型,对第五次(2008年)森林资源复查指标进行预测.通过后验差检验法检验,获得的有林地面积、林分面积、活立木总蓄积、林分蓄积、林分单位蓄积和森林覆盖率的非等间距GM(1,1)模型的精度都为合格以上,平均相对误差均少于4.00%,而林业用地面积的精度不合格,平均相对误差为2.83%.预测结果为:有林地面积198.60万hm2,平均绝对残差1.91万hm2;活立木总蓄积8031.45万m3,平均绝对残差143.04万m3;森林覆盖率58.57%,平均绝对残差0.56%.预测值基本符合实际情况.
|
| 关 键 词： | 非等间距GM(1,1)模型 森林资源 连续清查 发展趋势 海南省 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-3168（2007）03-0035-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-18 |
The Gray Prediction of Developmental Tendency of Forest Resources in Hainan Province |
| |
| CHEN Xiu-long,CHEN Lei-fu,MO Xing-xing,CHEN Qiu-bo. The Gray Prediction of Developmental Tendency of Forest Resources in Hainan Province[J]. Forest Inventory and Planning, 2007, 32(3): 35-39 |
| |
| Authors: | CHEN Xiu-long CHEN Lei-fu MO Xing-xing CHEN Qiu-bo |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. South China University of Tropical Agriculture, Danzhou 571737 Hainan; 2. Forestry Bureau of Zengcheng City, Zengeheng 511300 Guangdong, China |
| |
| Abstract: | According to the reexamined data of every four years of forest resources continuous inventory respectively since 1979 in Hainan,the non-equidistance GM(1,1) models constructed by gray-system theory were adopted to predict the 5th times of forest resource reexamination indicators.The method of posterior error test showed that these non-equidistance GM(1,1) models had qualified precision,in detail,their relative errors of the result were less than 4.00%,but the precision of forestland area was unqualified with average relative error as 2.83%.On the whole,the predicted value almost accorded with the actual situation. |
| |
| Keywords: | non-equidistance GM(1 1) model forest resource continuous inventory developmental tendency Hainan province |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
