中国橡胶树主产区产胶能力分布特征研究

为准确掌握中国橡胶种植区橡胶产胶能力的差异，基于2000-2015年MODIS NPP数据，通过橡胶产胶能力模型得到了橡胶主产区全年橡胶产胶能力，并结合影响橡胶产量的气象灾害（风害、寒害）、气候适宜性等因子，分析了其产生差异的原因。结果表明，中国橡胶主产区云南、海南、广东的橡胶产胶能力在空间上存在明显差异，其中云南橡胶的年平均产胶能力最高，海南次之，广东最低；橡胶产胶能力多年平均值为云南124.59×10⁴ g·hm^-2，海南93.28×10⁴ g·hm^-2，广东63.07×10⁴ g·hm^-2。从时间看，整个橡胶主产区橡胶产胶能力在波动中呈增加趋势，增加趋势不显著；分区域看，海南和广东年产胶能力线性增长率分别为0.24×10⁴、0.3×10⁴ g·hm^-2，而云南年产胶能力有微弱下降趋势，年线性减少率为0.07×10⁴ g·hm^-2。气候差异以及风害、寒害等的影响是导致橡胶产胶能力分布产生差异的主因，其中海南橡胶种植区的产胶能力变化受风害影响为主；广东橡胶种植区的产胶能力受风害和寒害共同影响，同时气候适宜性也限制其种植范围的北扩；云南橡胶种植区的产胶能力受寒害影响，气候适宜性限制橡胶种植区域的范围。该研究结果对橡胶生产决策服务具有一定的指导意义。

Characteristics of Rubber Potential Productivity in Chinese Main Rubber Plantation Areas

In order to accurately get the differences of rubber potential productivity in main rubber plantation areas in China,the annual rubber potential productivity were calculated based on 2000-2015 MODIS NPP data.The wind disaster,chilling injury,climate suitability factors were used to analyze the impacts to rubber productivity.The results showed that rubber potential productivity in Yunnan,Hainan,Guangdong was obviously different,highest in Yunnan,followed by Hainan,and lowest in Guangdong.The mean rubber tree potential productivity was 124.59×10⁴ g·hm^-2 in Yunnan,93.28×10⁴ g·hm^-2 in Hainan,63.07×10⁴ g·hm^-2 in Guangdong during 2000-2015.The rubber potential productivity was in volatility and increasing,but the increasing trend was not significant.The linear growth rates of the annual rubber potential productivity in Hainan and Guangdong were 0.24×10⁴ g·hm^-2·a^-1,0.3×10⁴ g·hm^-2·a^-1,while it was 0.07×10⁴ g·hm^-2·a^-1 in Yunnan.Differences of rubber potential productivity in different areas were resulted from wind disaster,chilling injury and climate suitability factors.Variation of rubber potential productivity in Hainan was mainly affected by wind damage.In Guangdong,by wind and chilling injury,while climate suitability also limited the scope of cultivation.In Yunnan,which was mainly affected chilling injury,and climate suitability restricted potential rubber plantation area.The results could provide the decision-makers for rubber production in China.