Implications of marine environment change on Japanese scallop (Mizuhopecten yessoensis) aquaculture suitability: a comparative study in Funka and Mutsu Bays,Japan

The determination of the causes for the changes in marine environment in areas with similar oceanic climate forcing on most suitable sites for scallop aquaculture can help to ensure long‐term sustainability of the coastal ecosystem. This study assessed aquaculture suitability sites using dominant indicators of marine ecological dynamics on Japanese scallop culture in Funka and Mutsu Bays, Japan as comparative examples. Data sources comprised of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), four dimensional‐variational (4D‐VAR) data assimilation system, Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS), in situ and buoy measurements. The suitable sites were ranked on a scale of 1 (least suitable) to 8 (most suitable). In the most suitable sites in aquaculture operational areas, Funka Bay had a high proportion (51.1%) than Mutsu Bay (13.7%) for the best performed model. Peaks of aquaculture suitability scores were attributed to potential effects of currents. Extreme sea temperatures (>24°C) in summer 2010 were associated with low performance of the 2010 model in Mutsu Bay and mortality of scallops based on sea temperature‐depth visualizations. Future global warming effects are likely to decrease the most suitable culture sites in Funka Bay and loss of similar areas in Mutsu Bay. Thus, change in marine environment influences scallop culture development. Such concepts could form scientific basis for aquaculture planning on designated system of larval distribution and stock management of cultured species to minimize mortality and economic losses.