基于COSIM模型的新疆棉花延迟型冷害指标分析

 应用新疆石河子和莎车两地的棉花试验资料，对棉花模型COSIM进行参数调试及有效性验证，模型可较好地模拟石河子和莎车两地的棉花生长发育过程及产量水平。利用COSIM模型45年连续模拟结果及2004年不同播种期的模拟结果进行统计学分析，结果表明：棉花生育期≥12℃有效积温、开花期和子棉产量有显著的线性关系。提出：棉花生育期≥12℃有效积温较多年平均的减少量和开花期较多年平均的推迟日数是定量评估新疆棉花延迟型冷害的指标。通过检验，延迟型冷害指标对严重气候减产年的拟合率达到80%。

Analysis of Cotton Delayed Cool Injury Indices in Xinjiang Based on COSIM

According to the cotton test data acquired from Shihezi and Shache in Xinjiang,the parameters of COSIM model were adjusted and the validity was validated.The result indicated that the growth and the yield of cotton simulated well. By analysing the simulated results of 45 years and the data of different sowing periods in 2004 with statistical methods,we found that the seed cotton yield had a positive linear correlation with ≥12℃ effective accumulative temperature and flowering stage.Therefore,the values of ≥12℃ effective accumulative temperature decreased and the flowering stage postponed by comparing with the average values were two indices to assess cotton delayed cool injury.The correlative coefficient between the delayed cool injury indices and the years of serious yield reduction due to climate was about 80%.