| 基于灰色系统理论的城镇建设用地预测模型的研究——以湖北潜江市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐晶,周勇.基于灰色系统理论的城镇建设用地预测模型的研究——以湖北潜江市为例[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(24). |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐晶 周勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,湖北武汉,430079 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，潜江市国土资源局资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对我国现行城镇建设用地预测中存在的问题,在预测潜江市城镇建设用地规模中引入灰色系统理论中的灰色关联度和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,用灰色GM(1,1)模型对城镇人口进行预测,并通过关联度综合分析各因素(人口、固定资产投资)对城镇建设用地的影响,结合建设用地控制系数进行再次调整,从而提出一种集约型的预测模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 城镇建设用地 预测 灰色系统 控制系数 |
Study on the Forecast Model of Urban Constructive Land Based on the Gray System Theory |
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| TANG Jing et al.Study on the Forecast Model of Urban Constructive Land Based on the Gray System Theory[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2008,36(24). |
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| Authors: | TANG Jing |
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| Abstract: | According to the existing problems of the present forecast methods for urban constructive land use in China,the grey system theory(the gray correlation and the gray GM(1,1) forecast model) was introduced to forecast the urban constructive land use in Qianjiang City.Gray GM(1,1) model was used to forecast the urban population.And the effects of each factor on urban constructive land were analyzed by gray correlation.Readjustment was carried out combining with the control coefficient of construction land.Furthermore,a kind of intensive projection method was proposed. |
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| Keywords: | Urban constructive land Forecast Grey system Control coefficient |
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