1985～2005年西藏资源人口承载力探析

本文在分析西藏自然和社会经济资源现状的基础上,利用相对资源承载力理论及计算方法,以全国为参照物,选取人口、耕地面积和GDP等指标对西藏20多年来的相对资源人口承载力进行了时空模拟与分析,结果表明:①西藏自然资源承载力对综合资源承载力的贡献大于经济资源承载力,综合资源承载力的增长整体上低于全区人口的增长;②以全国对比,西藏实际资源人口承载力远远大于相对资源综合人口承载力,人口处于严重超载的状况等。文章最后在分析原因的基础上探讨了缓解西藏人地关系矛盾的对策。

Prospect on the population carrying capacity of resource in Tibet from 1985 to 2005

Based on analyses of the actuality of the natural,social and economical resource of Tibet,using the research theory and the calculation methods of the relative carrying capacity of synthetic resources,and selecting some data such as:population,agrarian area and GDP,the relative carrying capacity of synthetic resource of Tibet was analyzed in the past twenty years.The result showed:the contribution of the carrying capacity of natural resources to the carrying capacity of synthetic resources is much higher than that of the carrying capacity of economic resources,and the increase of the carrying capacity of synthetic resource is generally lower than the population growth;The practical carrying capacity of synthetic resource is higher than the relative carrying capacity of synthetic resource,the carrying capacity of resource of Tibet is overloaded.At the same time,the existent causes of the carrying capacity of resource of Tibet was analyzed,and the paper discuss the countermeasures of solving conflict of the man-land relationship in Tibet was discusssed.