基于变权的多层次模糊综合评判在大坝安全评价中的应用

结合大坝安全评价涉及因素多且因素之间相关性强的特点,构建大坝安全综合评价的多层次指标体系。鉴于大坝安全评价中各指标的不确定性以及一般模糊评判方法中采用"常权法"确定权重的不合理性,建立基于变权的多层次模糊综合评价模型。该模型考虑权重随评估值变化,突出个别因素的明显变化对评价结果的影响,在一定程度上避免了"常权法"在权重分配中的缺陷。工程实例分析表明,该评价方法合理、可行且易于操作。

Application of Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensiv Evaluation Based on Contingency Theory to Dam Safety Assessment

Abstract：According to the current norms and combining with the characteristics of dam safety assessment, a multilevel comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed. In consideration of the uncertainty of index and the consequence of weight allocation in dam safety assessment, as well as the irrationality of invariable weight with general fuzzy evaluation, this paper emphasizes that weight can change with evaluating value and sets multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluating model based on contingency theory. Then the evaluating method is proved to be reasonable and feasible by analyzing and calculating with an example, which provides scientific basis for dam safety assessment.