基于灰色理论的陕西省林业产业结构分析预测

应用灰色关联度分析方法研究1998-2010年陕西省林业产业结构与变化规律,建立GM(1,1)预测模型。结果表明:1998-2010年陕西省林业3次产业与林业总产业的灰色关联度分别为0.975 9,0.887 3,0.744 9。产值的排序为第一产业>第二产业>第三产业;在未来10a,由于居民生活水平的不断提高,将进一步带动以森林旅游和林业服务为主的林业第三产业高速发展,促进林业产业结构不断趋于合理完善。形成第三产业超过第一、第二产业占主导地位,且第一、第二产业齐头并进的发展新格局。

Grey Analysis Prediction on Forestry Industrial Structure in Shaanxi

The structure and changing regularities of forestry industry in Shaanxi Province,China during 1998 to 2010 were investigated by grey correlation analysis method.The prediction model GM(1,1) was established.The results showed that the degrees of grey correlation between the industries of the three catalogues(the first,second and third industry) and total forestry industry were 0.979 5,0.887 3,and 0.744 9,respectively.The output values of the three industries were in the order of the first > the second > the third.It was predicted that the continuous improvement of the living standard of the people would further promote the rapid development of the third forestry industry manifested by the flourishing of forest tourism and forestry services,which would make the structure of forestry industry more reasonable.A new pattern in which the third forestry industry will be in dominant position among the three would be formed.