中国耕地流转时空特征及影响因素分解

通过耕地流转实现农业适度规模经营,是解决"谁来种田"的关键。分析各因素对耕地流转的作用及影响强度,识别其主导因素,对促进耕地适度规模经营具有积极意义。该文运用对数平均迪氏分解方法(logarithmic mean weigh Division index method,LMDI)建立因素分解模型,定量评价并对比分析2008?2014年间中国省域耕地流转变动的驱动因素。研究结果表明,1)2008?2014年,中国耕地流转面积累计增长了1.96?107 hm2,增长2.7倍,年均增长率达到24.40%,京津地区、黄淮海地区、长江中下游地区、东北地区等经济活跃或优势农业产区的耕地流转发展较快。2)经济因素、农民增收因素、农机化因素对耕地流转有显著的正向作用,其中农机化因素对耕地流转的促进作用最大,研究期内农机化累计效应促进耕地流转率提高18.16%,经营意愿因素对耕地流转有显著的负向影响。3)区域之间4个分解因素的累计效应存在显著差异。总体而言,经济效应促进了华东与华南地区耕地流转率的显著提高,农民增收效应主要促进了华东地区耕地流转率提高,农机化效应促进了大部分地区耕地流转率提高10%以上,但华南与西南地区相对较低。

Spatial-temporal characteristics and influential factors decomposition of farmland transfer in China

To expand the scale of agricultural management through farmland transfer is the key solution to the problem that "who will be engaged in agriculture in the future".It is of positive significance to expand the scale of agricultural management by decomposing the impact of each factor on farmland transfer and identifying the dominant factors.Taking 30 provinces in China as sampling units,and adopting the logarithmic mean weight Division method (LMDI),the farmland transfer was decomposed into 4 factors,i.e.,economic factor,farmer's income factor,management willingness factor,and agricultural mechanization factor.On the basis of the LMDI model,the effect and accumulated effect of each factor were explored.The results proved that:1) The farmland transfer area increased by 2.7 times,an increase of up to 1.96×107 hm2 from 2008 to 2014 in China,and the average annual growth rate reached 24.40％.The rate of farmland transfer increased by 21.52％ in total,and increased by 3.16％,2.66％,3.19％,3.40％,4.46％ and 4.66％ respectively from 2008 to 2014.The farmland transfer in Beijing-Tianjin region,Huang-Huai-Hai region,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region and northeastern China was developing rapidly as the result of economic activity or agricultural advantage.2) The accumulated effects of economic factor,farmer's income factor,management willingness factor and agricultural mechanization factor were 11.12％,3.90％,-11.66％ and 18.16％,respectively.Among the 4 factors,economic factor,farmer's income factor and agricultural mechanization factor had significant positive effects on farmland transfer;in addition,the positive effects of farmer's income factor and agricultural mechanization factor increased year by year.Agricultural mechanization factor had the biggest positive effect,because the large-scale agricultural management must rely on technological innovation of agricultural production to reduce costs and improve production efficiency.Management willingness factor had a significant negative effect,because farmers' income mainly came from non-agricultural income in China,and was mainly used to improve their quality of life,the willingness of agricultural production investment was not strong.3) There were obvious differences among the 4 factors' effects at the province level in China.The effect of economic factor was to promote the farmland transfer rate to increase significantly in the eastern China and southern China.In addition,the farmland transfer rate has been increased at most in the Yangtze River Delta region,because farmers prefer to work in non-agricultural industries rather than stay in the countryside in order to obtain higher incomes.The farmer's income effect was mainly to promote the farmland transfer in the eastern China where the farmers gain more benefits in the economic development and have more social security.The effect of agricultural mechanization factor was to promote the land transfer rate to increase by more than 10％ in most areas of China,but it was relatively low in the southern China and southwestern China,where the terrain is mainly hills and mountains,the infrastructure of farmland is weak,so it was difficult for agricultural machine to replace manpower,and the opportunities of land transfer were fewer.This paper gets the main influencing factors of farmland transfer in different regions of China,which can be a reference for the differentiation of support policy.