重庆市粮食可持续生产能力分析评价

通过对重庆市粮食增产潜力进行科学预测，为国家或区域合理制定粮食增产及粮食安全措施提供理论依据。分析了2000 年以来重庆市水稻、玉米和小麦单产水平、粮食总产量及可提升的空间；利用2000—2010 年间统计数据，应用多元线性回归和建立灰色模型分析方法，对重庆市粮食生产可持续发展能力和粮食供需平衡状况进行分析。结果表明：重庆市粮食生产可持续发展能力较强，可提升的空间较大；粮食自给率水平逐步提高。重庆市未来粮食生产基本可以满足粮食需求。

Studies on Sustainable Development of Grain Production Capability in Chongqing

Scientific prediction of potential grain production for country or area can provide the theory basis for reasonable formulation of approaches to ensure increase in grain production and food safety. The author analyzed the capital yield of rice, maize and wheat as well as the sustainable development of grain production capacity in Chongqing and the balance of grain supply and demand based on the data from 2000 to 2010, and used the method of multivariate linear regression and grey model. The ability of sustainable development of grain production is strong in Chongqing, its self-sufficiency rate of grain is gradually improved. The grain production can meet the demand in Chongqing in the future.