北方农牧交错带气候变化与旱涝响应特征

依据北方农牧交错带1961-2012年46个气象站气温、降水数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检测及Kring插值法,对该区气候变化及旱涝时空特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)近52 a,北方农牧交错带气候呈现暖干化趋势,1986年后暖干化趋势有所加强。(2)不同区域不同时段,气温、降水表现出不同的变化特征。(3)全区及3个子区旱涝等级均呈上升趋势,不同区域旱涝等级变化趋势差异显著。(4)北方农牧交错带大涝呈"片状"分布,大旱呈"斑点状"分布。全区整体相对较易发生大旱,东北段相对更易发生大涝,华北段更易发生大旱。

Climate Change and Response Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

Based on the annual air temperature and precipitation data of 46 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2012 in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China, the climate variation of temperature and the spatial-temporal characteristics of the drought and flood in the entire region were analyzed using the methods of climate trend rate, Mann-Kendall test and Kring interpolation. The results showed that:(1) In the past 52 years, the climate showed a warming and drying trend in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China, and the trend had been enhanced after 1986.(2) The variations of temperatures and precipitation showed different characteristics in different spatial and temporal scales.(3) The drought and flood level was rising in the entire region and the three sub-zones, and showed a remarkable difference in different regions.(4) The distribution of flood disaster was in patchy shape, and that of severe droughts was in speckled pattern. Overall, the region was relatively more prone to drought, there was relatively more susceptible to floods in the northeastern section, more susceptible to drought in Northern China.